18 July 2010 10:48 GMT

Look back 11 years to the final round of the 1999 Open at Carnoustie and the record books show that Paul Lawrie made up 10 strokes on leader Jean Van de Velde over 18 holes. It is the biggest last round turn-around in the 150-year history of the Championship and he went on to win in a play-off.

That fact will not be lost on the challengers bunched a long way back in the wake of Louis Oosthuizen as they prepare for this afternoon’s assault.

But even closest rival Paul Casey starts with a four-shot deficit and only 10 players in total are within that record 10-shot bracket. Of those, Retief Goosen is the sole proven majors winner, and he has the full 10-shot mountain to climb.

Casey has had top 10 finishes in The Open, the Masters and the US Open, but Oosthuizen has no track record in the big events. He has played well enough to get into the championships, but in five attempts he has yet to make the half-way cut.

Scoring conditions are ideal. There is just enough breeze to lift the flags and the course has not yet regained its full links speed after heavy rain earlier in the week. Edoardo Molinari, the senior brother of the World Cup-winning Italian pair, has shown what can be achieved today with four birdies in 16 holes.

But there is always the dreaded 17th waiting to ruin a score.